Early February saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meet, with base rates increased by a further 50 basis points, to 4%. Although this was the tenth consecutive rate rise, the market now widely expects we are nearing the peak. With expectations that base rates will top out at between 4% and 4.5% this year.

Q4 figures showed the UK managed to narrowly avoid falling into a recession in 2022, with the economy flat in the fourth quarter, however economic output was down -0.5% in December. Forecasters are not discounting the possibility of recession this year, albeit any recession in the UK economy is now expected to be shorter and shallower than originally forecast.

Source: JLL Research – 23 February 2023
Residential Market Update February 2023 – A competitive mortgage market is arising